Introduction to the Scenarios
This website is the outcome of a workshop in which scenario planning was used to create four possible scenarios for the future of corporate learning. The four scenarios are: old boy network, in-crowd, big data and quantified self.
The following video gives a short introduction:
We always need help to enliven the scenarios. You can be involved too!
Old Boy Network
In-Crowd
Big Data
Quantified Self
Image by Jim Merithew/Wired.com, CC-licensed. A big thank you to Fusion Universal for creating the video. A transcript can be downloaded here.
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Learning Scenarios 
hi to all learningscenarios.orgers this is my first post and thought i would say hello to you all –
speak soon
garry
This website is new to me. I just reviewed the four learning scenarios for the first time.
I don’t like the name, but the only learning scenario that I have confidence in is the “Old Boy Network.” Is the name a fair characterization of the scenario or is it an attempt to make the other scenarios appear more hip or trendy? The other three scenarios have attractive elements, but I don’t know enough to see how the other scenarios can be effective in medium to large organizations that require a highly skilled workforce that operates in a highly regulated environment. Would the other scenarios would work well for early career staff in an energy company, an airline, or a military organization? Maybe the other scenarios will work well for a sub-set of the staff in an large organization, for example people in the middle or late in their careers who are already fully compentent in their basic skills.
Thank you for taking the time to reply Mark! We also didn’t like the “Old Boy Network” name very much, because the name shouldn’t have negative connotations. We brainstormed for about an hour, but couldn’t come up with another term that covered as much of the concept as this one…
I personally believe that “Big Data” is also a scenario that could work well in “medium to large organizations that require a highly skilled workforce [operating] in a highly regulated environment”. The dimension of how work is organized aligns with whether you work in a big or small organization, but how work is done doesn’t. I believe that it would be possible to make much more data-driven decisions and still satisfy business demands.
Another thing to remember is that very large organizations are actually many businesses in one. There are already pockets of “In-Crowd” in any large organization I am sure!
i really like your scenarios. i have one question-how did the group developed the sequence as i see in some scenario methodologies they follow the algebraic quadrants to show scenario progression.
We developed the scenarios using the simple model of creating four quadrants based on two uncertainties. We did this in 3 hours in 3 groups with about 30 people from different companies. Interestingly enough the dimensions of the 3 groups were rather similar, so the final product is a matrix of four quadrants. If we would have had more time we would have loved to look at the dynamics across the quadrants to develop storylines. If you are interested we could try to spend 30-45 minutes on the current quadrants to see if there are some stories emerging already?
yes in interested. how and would you use the quadrants (x, y, z axes)?
i would like to share my thoughts about the general sequence of scenario development:
CONCEPT #1: Alternate logic is developed from the “other logic” of the axis outcome. The overall scenario can be developed from the dynamics of the outcomes and the alternate logic based on what other axis it influences. The “mega” scenario is the synthesis of the axes with their alternate logics considering timeframes and aspects of research.
The full understanding of the drivers and driving forces must be initiated to allow for a comprehensive appreciation of the dynamics/interplay of macro and micro environmental forces that will make up the scenario.
CONCEPT #2: THE ALTERNATE LOGICS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF OPERATIONAL-TACTICAL OR OPERATIONAL AND TACTICAL SCENARIOS BASED ON THE ACTUAL SCENARIOS OBSERVED IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. THIS NEEDS MORE “BACKCASTING” SO AS TO PRESERVED THE CONNECTION OF THE SCENARIOS BEING DEVELOPED WITH REALITY AND UTILITY. THE CRITICAL PART IS THE CONTEXTUALIZATION OF THE DRIVERS AND THEIR ENDSTATES AT THE VARIOUS LEVELS.
BASED FROM OUR use of scenarios in strategic and operational planning, the quadrants provides more utility in fleshing out scenarios based on intuition and logic. The scenario logic did not have to be arbitrarily set and “stovepipe” the scenario context. The key is more time for driver and driver endstate discussions using affinity diagrams and related techniques ( oval mapping, issue matrix, issue trees, SWOC-for KDF analysis). The quadrant as a whole develops both the macro and micro appreciation of the scenario. WE CAN IMAGINE FOUR QUADRANTS WITH THE ALTERNATE LOGICS AT THE VARIOUS Z AXES IF WE CAN FLESH OUT UP TO EIGHT SCENARIOS. PLS COMMENT.
Thank you for those thoughts! These would indeed be good next steps if we would have the capacity to take on this work (won’t happen currently).